Health Policy

Description of the HDM-III Model by Professor Thawat Watanatada

By Professor Thawat Watanatada

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The traffic submodelemploysdata enteredby the user to derive,for each year of the analysis,the volume of traffic of each vehicle type, the number of vehicleaxles, and the number of equivalentsingle axles on each paved road link under analysis. For unpavedlinks,only total trafficvolumes are calculated. 1TrafficVolumes The data are entered in the form of "trafficsets," defined below, for normaland for generatedtraffic. Normaltrafficon a link is the average daily two-way traffic volume (ADT) of each vehicle group 42 MODELOPERATIONS 1 on the link in each year of the baselineor "withoutproject" case.

The fixedamountswill be added eachyear untilnew values for the incrementsare called for or a new growth periodbegins. 1 When used in the roaddeterioration model,the total two-waytrafficis divided,in the model, by the effectivenumber of lanes, and half of the total is assumedto be goingeach way. 43 MODELOPERATIONS 3. After initial volumes have been established,an annual percentagegrowth rate may be specifiedfor each vehicle group. Traffic volumes will be incrementedby these percentageseach year until new rates are put into effect or a new growthperiodbegins.

The Kenya equationsare characteristically of a continuousfunctiontype, each distressfunction being independentof other distress types, in other words, a parallel development in all distress modes. The Brazilstudy buildson the causality of events,but in so doing,introducesformulational discontinuities, which increasethe computational effort,as the readerwill see in Chapter4. Both studieshave advancedour abilityto predictroaddeterioration under normalmaintenance regimes,and in particularhave providedquantitative relationships that give reasonableresultswhen extrapolating over the life of a road.

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